Thursday, October 4, 2007

Welcome, Baseball Prospectus readers!

So the estimable Will Carroll of Jenn Sterger fame has directed you here, eh? Well then. Let us say just this one thing while you're around... after all the words that were written about the Royals' "horrible" offseason signing, after all the letters and tears sent to this jester-king over at Salon, after all those message boards filled up with all that foolish claptrap...

We forgive you.

Gilgameche forgives you.

And, most importantly, the baseball gods forgive you.

For those who doubt man-myths like Gil Meche may as well doubt the heart of Optimus Prime, and gods do not like seeing those who walk among them thusly defiled.

But we all forgive you.

Finis. Optimus Prime lives. Gilgameche lives. Dayton Moore Our Hero lives. Trust lives. Royals baseball lives.

Jenn Sterger, thankfully, lives...


Photo by Tomasso DeRosa

POSTSCRIPT: For the record,
the bet was that Meche would end the season with a higher VORP than this guy.

And if you just clicked on the "this guy" link and came back... yes, Cubs fans,
we apologize... we apologize you haven't been to a World Series that wasn't affected by a World War since 1938 and haven't won one in 346 years, we apologize for the supposed curse(s) that makes your team so appealing to literatis, we apologize for the wind, the snow, the sleet in April, the fact that you couldn't win one for Harry and can't seem to win for Santo, for the sacking of Steve Stone, for letting Greg Maddux go... we apologize your hometown media still blames Bartman, we apologize you're about to be overtaken by corporate sharks and, most of all, we apologize your team paid $7 million for an October long reliever. So, again... sorry. Go, Cubs, go!

POSTSCRIPT 2: But let us unite in proclaiming the Cardinals' suckitude.

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Rooting against the Cubs is only too human

As the Cubs prepare to take the field in Arizona, we'd like to remind you that it is your civic duty to root against the North Shore Losers, not only because their fan base is flaky and among the least knowledgeable in baseball (with notable exceptions, of course), but also for the sake of plain human drama. As Jeff Caple and Eric Neel of ESPN Page 2 put it:

Losing abides. Losing lingers, painfully, yes, but constantly. Winning might bathe you in glory, but it does not define you. Someone snatches it away too quickly for that. Losing, more than something you do, is something you are. The Cubs are losers. This isn't sad. It's noble. It's brave. It's timeless.

Go Diamondbacks!

(Sorry, Kinsella.)

POSTSCRIPT: Josh Beckett just pitched a complete-game shutout and the Red Sox actually finished a postseason game in under three hours. Incredible.

Getting their licks in while they still can

And not a Ken Harvey highlight among them.

From Old Rich People via Royals Review:

How many times can you scream "Oh my God"?

Too many to count.

This is a better video though:



It tells the same story from every angle, but it still delights me to think that, if we watched the events unfold through someone else's camcorder, we'd catch a glimpse of something different...

One of my college professors, Eric Charles LeMay, wrote a book called "The One in the Many," and I couldn't help but think about that now. It seems a fitting description of the proliferation of video cameras at ballparks as fans try to duplicate this, which ended up getting linked in a Bill Simmons column. Spine-tingling stuff.

Postseason predictions

Before you read this, please read Jayson Stark's column, which serves as one big disclaimer for anyone claiming foreknowledge of this upcoming slate of games.

That said:

Division Series:
Philadelphia, 3
Colorado, 2

Arizona, 1
Chicago, 3

Boston, 3
Los Angeles of Anaheim, 0

New York, 3
Cleveland, 2

Championship Series:
Philadelphia, 3
Chicago, 4

Boston, 3
New York, 4

World Series:
Chicago, 4
New York, 3

That's right, the Cubs.

Although in the interest of full disclosure, I'm rooting for Rockies-Indians but think we'll see Phillies-Red Sox (or Indians).

I understand this runs counter to my claim, nary two seconds ago, that I think the Cubs and Yankees will play in the World Series.

I don't really have a good answer for that...

It begins

To stop and to begin again,
No longer to stretch and rest,
That's life you must accept.

To begin once again, but to begin well,
no longer to make mistakes,
that's life you must percept.

To go on the best way you can,
no longer to stop without reason,
That's the way you must intercept.
-- Ivanka Slavkovska

Postseason fates are decided as often by mistakes as heroics, and so, as the second season begins at the end of the first, we ask: who will make the most costly mistake of the day to cost his team victory?

Here are the games, and your choices:

Colorado at Philadelphia
3 p.m., TBS
Pitching matchup: Jeff Francis vs. Cole Hamels

Possible chokers:

a) Manny Corpas
b) Garrett Atkins
c) Pat Burrell
d) Brett Myers

Los Angeles of Anaheim at Boston
6:30 p.m., TBS
John Lackey vs. Josh Beckett

a) Francisco Rodriguez
b) Vladimir Guerrero
c) Eric Gagne
d) Manny Ramirez

Chicago at Arizona
10 p.m., TBS
Carlos Zambrano vs. Brandon Webb

a) Ryan Dempster
b) Carlos Zambrano
c) Mark Reynolds
d) Chris Young

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Wow.


Jack Dempsey/AP; Kathryn Scott Osler/Denver Post

13 STORIES OF A BASEBALL GAME

Listen to the musnt’s, child.
Listen to the don’ts.
Listen to the shouldn’ts, the impossibles, the won’ts.
Listen to the never haves… then listen close to me.
Anything can happen, child.
ANYTHING can be.

--Shel Silverstein, as quoted by
Dan Lucero of MVN: Up in the Rockies

One.
A blog/message board serves witness

12:02 a.m. ET: I can't even describe

how I'm feeling right now. The ball over Holliday's head, the HR that got taken away from Atkins, and Jorge @&5227@#$&# Julio and Ramon Ortiz.

Draw the curtains. --Silverblood

12:03 a.m.: Ortiz?
I think Hurdle must be sending a message to Dan O'Dowd what he really wants him to start working on when the offseason begins tomorrow. --Rox Girl
12:08 a.m.: welcome back...

...I find myself wondering when the last time Trevor blew 2 in a row? --Gumbo

12:12 a.m.: Atkins...

This had better not come down to Atkins's line-up spot. --green

12:13 a.m.: The game was too tight
We needed Garrett's bat. I didn't agree then, and still don't, with yanking him. Carroll hasn't exactly been sterling at the hot corner thus far. --Silverblood
12:14 a.m.: YES!
One-run game! Now, Matt... PLEASE? --Rox Fan in TN
12:15 a.m.: YESSSS!!!!

I SCREAM!

I SCREAM!!! --Silverblood (the last from him on this post*)

12:15 a.m.: I can't breathe!! I can't breathe!!

Oh please --Rox Girl
12:16 a.m.: Okay Jamey

Don't strike out, don't GIDP. Hell, GIDP if Matt can score, I don't care. --Rox Fan in TN
...Carroll hits a line drive to right...
* Ed's note: We don't know who Silverblood is, but he has an epic recounting of his post-win reaction here that has won our admiration (scroll about a quarter of the way down and find the five-paragraph post titled "OMFG").

One more (though the one titled "I cried" from "Tulo will grow a beard soon" is worth reading as well):
1:03 a.m.: Anyone near the Lincoln Park bars in Chicago...

...I left my tab open at Halligan, and told the bartenders to only serve Rockies fans. I'm probably down a few hundred now, but please, be my guest.

Pass the Xanax... --honestyinmotion


Two.
Let's say, for the hell of it, this were all fiction. Or a dream. A dream of a dream. Then we would believe it, the stringency of reality would not apply, sequences would not be constricted by physics or the vise of logic.

Somewhere in the preexistence of time, it is written that this would happen, exactly such a season unspooled at this material time. And it is we who were chosen to be witnesses. We who were written too into this preformed plot. The hand that writes you into your next moment -- future conflated into past, imagined kiss turned to ecstasy or disappointment -- does it too write the past simultaneous? Do we travel in symmetry to unexplored and forfeited alternatives, winding ourselves inch by inch of diaphanous thread, gossamer of time, towards a beginning that is our death? And what stories do we tell then? What memories do we keep? Has free will reign then?

Or do we merely remember dreams, alternatives of alternatives? A dream that was not reality, a baseball game that never happened?

Three.
Let's say, instead, we do live in reality.
Joe: What happened?
Tom: Only the best baseball game I've ever fucking seen!
Joe: I had class. Missed it.
Tom: Who has class from 7 to midnight?
Joe: Okay, I watched Monday Night Football. Put $20 on the Bengals to cover.
Tom: You're twice dumb and a liar to boot.
Joe: Guilty. So what happened?
Tom: Let me start from the beginning...

Four.
...Josh Fogg did not have his best stuff. In the 1st inning I said to a buddy of mine that his pitches kept tailing into the middle of the plate and that I would be shocked if he lasted five innings. I note that the Padres, second time around, will stop swinging over or slightly under these 84-mph two-seamers. But anyway, at least his stuff isn't flaccid like Jake Peavy's. Possibly energized by their frenzied crowd, the Rockies jump on the NL Cy Young frontrunner and lead 2-0 after the 1st. It's 3-0 in the top of the 3rd when the Padres come around to bat for the second time against Fogg. The bases are loaded for Adrian Gonzalez, one of two good hitters in the Padres' lineup, and what happens but what we feared and dreaded and expected, a first-pitch grand slam to silence the crowd and put the Friars up 4-3. It's 5-3 when Todd Helton -- Mr. Helton, as I call him -- hits a solo shot to trim the lead in half. It remains that way until our boys break through in the 5th, again off Peavy. First, Rookie of the Year Troy Tulowitzki (he should definitely beat Ryan Braun, a.k.a. Worst Fielder EVER) doubles, hitting a ball to center that a diving Brady Clark would have caught if he was Mike Cameron... only he's not Mike Cameron, and Mike Cameron is not playing centerfield because Milton Bradley stepped on his thumb last week while chasing after a would-be inside-the-park home run hit by Garrett Atkins. (Oh Milton Bradley -- on one play last week, you live up to your reputation of being a hothead and injury prone by arguing with an ump and tearing a knee ligament on the same play... indeed, in the same instant... this after ending the season of the indispensable Mike Cameron -- you are star-crossed beyond words.) The next batter, MVP Matt Holiday -- he should be, anyway -- hits a single to center, which Clark fields and makes a terrible throw to the plate to allow the tying run to score. Then, in the 6th, Sean Smith. Who's Sean Smith? Just the hottest pinch-hitter in baseball. Brady Clark again misplays a ball hit over his head, which goes off the wall for a triple. He scores when Kaz Matsui hits a sacrifice fly -- to where else, dumbo? -- to shallow center, where Clark makes a catch and again makes a terrible throw to the plate. That gives us the lead, you know. It should be 7-5 a little later, in the 7th, when Atkins homers, but his shot to left-center -- which ricocheted off a hand rail beyond the wall -- is ruled a double. He's removed -- utterly unnecessarily -- for a pinch-runner, Jamey Carroll, who would replace him at third base. This would come back to hurt the Rockies, who give up the tying run in the next half inning when Holliday takes a step in on a ball off the bat of Brian Giles -- the Padres' only other decent hitter -- when he should have stepped back. As if in slow motion, the ball falls just over his head...

Joe: I can't take this anymore.
Tom: No, there's more... there's much more.
Joe: I can't take it. I'm sorry. I can't take it.
Tom: We're only in the 8th inning here... you've yet to hear about Matt Herges and Jorge Julio -- mercy on him -- and Holliday striking out three straight times after his misplay in left and the three-run comeback capped by a Holliday triple and a sacrifice fly and a head-first slide and a controversial call...
Tom: (head explodes)

Five.
By Troy E. Renck

They did it for the fans who were lined up at 7 a.m., filling every parking spot on Blake Street. They did it for the folks who hold up the purple Helton sign underneath the Rockpile on anonymous summer nights. They did it for Ed the parking attendant who didn't have to tell the arriving players what he wanted for his birthday. They did it for those who didn't leave after four hours, whose voices were gone from screaming and arms cramped from clapped.

But truthfully, the players, who grew up before an entire state's eyes, did it for themselves. From the National League basement in 2005, the Rockies' completed their improbable dash from afterthought to the playoffs, securing a berth with an angioplasty-required 9-8 victory in 13 innings at Coors Field on Jamey Carroll's sacrifice fly scoring Matt Holliday.

The Rockies, winners of 14 of their last 15 games, open the National League Division Series Wednesday at Philadelphia.


Six.
An e-mail from Alex L.:
Well that was the opener at Coors Field on my birthday on April 26 1005 when Bichette hit that walk off home run against the Mets, but I think tonights was as little better.

Cranston, maybe the Rockies will play the Red Sox in the World Series! They do have a winning record against the Phillies and the D-Backs this season.

Tao, see even perennially crappy teams like the Rockies can put something like this season together.

For once in my life, I actually care about something other than the Broncos in the fall

Seven.
Symmetry is poetic. Irony is poetic.
  • Brian Giles hit a ball that Matt Holliday misplayed, watched soar over his head, for the tying run in the 8th.
  • Matt Holliday hit a ball that Brian Giles couldn't catch, watched clank off the scoreboard above his head, for the tying run in the 13th.

  • Garrett Atkins had a home run ruled a double by an ump who missed the call.
  • Garrett Atkins, on second base, is replaced by Jamey Carroll.
  • Jamey Carroll, in his third at-bat, in the 13th inning, hits a line drive to Brian Giles for a walk-off sacrifice fly.
  • Matt Holliday (probably) never touches the plate but is called safe by Tim McClelland, who (probably) missed the call.

  • The silence and dejection and deflation after Scott Hairston's two-run home run in the top of the 13th was enough to make you hate baseball.
  • The ecstasy and jubilation and tumult in the bottom half of the inning was enough to wed you to it, till death do you part.

  • The Major League Baseball all-time saves leader blew his second save in three days. The Padres lost their third straight game, when winning any of them would have clinched them the Wild Card.

  • The Mets lost six of their last seven, when winning one more would have ensured a play-in game.
  • The Rockies won 14 of their last 15, when losing one more would have ended their season.

Eight.
A Mets fan threatens to kill himself, and the world does not care. The lonesome world does not care. The cruel world does not care. (Except...)

Rob: i hate my life right now
i hate everything
every fucking news source i come across

has a picture of a small child crying
i hate baseball

the small child is wearing a mets uniform
Sent at 4:24 PM on Monday

...except...

He is saved by, of all things, the San Diego Padres. The Colorado Rockies, too, mayhap, but that which he owes his life is not important. That he is saved is the miracle, for he is saved, he is saved.

The Rockies are God's Team.

Nine.
"Extra innings in an extra game, the team that can not say goodbye gets to say hello to America. And, America, you're going to love these guys." --Bernie Lincicome, Rocky Mountain News

The newspaper poets (and headline writers) and bards in Colorado, like the story of the Rockies itself, will just not stop.

The Rockies took the season to the 13th inning of the 163rd game, and it is not far enough. There is still further to go.

Ten.
Pictures. Lord, these pictures...

Eleven.
Anticipation. Written following their Sunday win, this lead from Mark Kiszla is, if not poetic, quite perfect:
He jumped so high for joy, 34-year-old first baseman Todd Helton did not touch the ground until he landed in October for the first time in his major-league career. And the baseball joint on Blake Street rocked Sunday, with more than 45,000 baseball lovers partying like it was 1995.

Twelve.
Repetition is poetic.
The Major League Baseball all-time saves leader blew his second save in three days. The Padres lost their third straight game, when winning any of them would have clinched them the Wild Card.

Thirteen.


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 R H E
San Diego
0 0 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2
8 15 0
Colorado
2 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
9 14 1

Monday, October 1, 2007

Padres-Rockies

This game is A-G-O-N-I-Z-I-N-G.

In case you missed it:
  • Padres centerfielder Brady Clark, playing for the injured Mike Cameron, has made three bad plays in the field -- not counting a bad throw on a sac fly -- to allow two runs to score.
  • In the 7th, with the Rockies up one and their bullpen set up perfectly, Garrett Atkins had a home run called for a double.
  • Atkins was removed for Jamie Carroll. I screamed.
  • In the next inning, Matt Holliday misplayed a line drive with two outs, allowing the tying run to score.
  • In the next half inning, Holliday struck out to end the inning with the go-ahead run on second.
  • Now we're in the 10th.
Just now, as Mike Cameron, injured with a torn ligament in his thumb, enters the game to pinch-run, Joe Simpson said, "You don't run on your thumbs... most of the time." Nice.

This game is killing me.

UPDATE 1, 10:58 p.m. ET: Cameron is staying in the game with a torn thumb ligament in his throwing hand.

AL Central Wrap: Indians

Jake Taylor: I play for the Indians.
Chaire Holloway: Here in Cleveland? I didn't know they still had a team!
Jake Taylor: Yup, we've got uniforms and everything, it's really great.
Long gone are those days when that joke even remotely applies.

The Indians are good. We say this not just because they took 10 of 18 from the Royals this year and Kelly Sh
oppach sent Alex Gordon to the hospital yesterday with a line drive, or that they're tied with the Red Sox for the most wins in the Majors with 96. (Okay, partly because of those 96 wins.) We say it because they're an incredibly balanced team, ranking in the top five in the American League in home runs, on-base percentage, OPS, team ERA, WHIP and K/BB (and tied 7th in strikeouts), and have a 1-2 punch of Sabathia and Carmona that's as good as any in baseball, as they embark on their postseason journey by hosting that other New York team.

Yankees fans have been dreading an opening round matchup against the Angels for weeks, but as Cranston mentioned recently, they're in for a
big surprise if they think they can manhandle the Indians like they did in the regular season.

No one knows this better than our final AL Central Wrap writer, a man known on his website as Mr. Dees (which reminds us of the Outkast lyric, We luv deez hoez, ha ha ha ha! We luv deez hoez). A longtime Indians fan -- his first game was at Municipal Stadium, and his lasting memory was missing out on a foul ball -- who estimates he's watched about 100 games this year on mlb.tv (and 8-10 in person), Dees currently lives in Chicago and teaches middle school history at St. Mary's in Lake Forest.

Why is he here? It's true Mr. Dees has not appeared on this blog prior to today, but his respect for the Royals endears him to us. "In all honesty," he says, "the Royals are always a thorn in the Indians' side. Case in point: last Saturday. The Indians needed to keep winning in order to gain home-field advantage, and Joey Gathright beats us in the 8th inning. Any true Indians fan respects the Royals because they play hard. Also, we will never forget Grady’s lost ball in the sun during the last week of the 2005 season. That play started the 1-6 swoon that knocked us out of the playoffs."

Without furth
er ado...

YOUTH SERVES UP AL CENTRAL CROWN

By Jeff Dees

Ask any baseball prognosticator in March what the key to the 2007 season would be, and the answers would've ranged from Jhonny Peralta to Grady Sizemore to C.C. Sabathia. But no one could have ever foreseen the emergence of a shortstop named Asdrubal Cabrera. No, that shortstop wasn’t even on the Indians. He was beginning the year in AA for the Akron Aeros.

Acquired one year ago from Seattle for ex-player, now subpar broadcaster, Eduardo Perez, Cabrera shot through AA by July, spent a grand total of nine days at AAA before being called up to the big time. With Josh Barfield struggling at second base and the Indians offense languishing as a whole, manager Eric Wedge saw the need for a change. Since Cabrera's insertion into the starting lineup on August 15, the Indians have compiled a 31-12 record and pulled away from the Tigers to capture the AL Central crown. Cabrera’s slick play in the field and clutch hitting (.375 from the 7th inning on) gave the Tribe some much-needed energy while reminding Clevelanders of another Venezuelan-born, #13 wearing great -- Omar Vizquel.

Asdrubal Cabrera is the perfect example of the Indians 2007 campaign. Sure, everyone knew that players such as Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Sabathia and Sizemore would play a major role in determining if the club could finally match its high expectations. But the contributions from Ryan Garko, Ben Francisco, Franklin Gutierrez, Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis and especially Fausto Carmona are the true reason why Cleveland is now the division champion.

Of the seven newcomers who inspired the Tribe this season, only one was supposed to be on the Major League roster when the team left Winter Haven, Fla., at the end of Spring Training. That was Ryan Garko, and he was the 25th man on the roster!! Garko would eventually become the everyday first baseman and hit over 20 home runs on the season. Francisco bounced back and forth during the year, but who can forget his first week in the big leagues: 4 HR in 7 games, including a walk-off against the Royals. Gutierrez, the vaunted prospect in the farm system, finally met his potential and supplanted aging Trot Nixon in the outfield. Frank the Tank’s speed, power and sheer athleticism greatly improved the defense.

On the mound, Lewis (who began at AA) augmented a bullpen that needed one more arm to give some rest to the three-headed monster at the end of ball games. Perez, a good starter in the minors, was brought up to bolster a bullpen that did not receive the help it desired from Roberto Hernandez and Aaron Fultz. Perez’s disgusting slider has baffled hitters and given him a sub-2.00 ERA.

Finally, the Fausto Carmona saga. All baseball fans recall the disastrous week known as the Fausto Carmona Closer Experiment last August. He lost four saves in one week while compiling a 1-10 record for the year. However, before and after that disaster, Carmona pitched lights out last season. Boy, did the trend continue this year. Injuries to Jake Westbrook and Cliff Lee kept Carmona in the rotation through May, and by then, only a fool would have taken him out (GM Mark Shapiro was almost that fool when he demoted Carmona for three days before another injury to Westbrook). Carmona’s mid-90s fastball and nasty slider -- so bad that Torii Hunter said it was like trying to hit while drunk -- propelled him to a 19-8 record and a 3.06 ERA (second in AL). If Carmona does not win the Cy Young this year, he should certainly be up for the Comeback Player of the Year.

The unlikely contributions seem so fitting because 2007 has truly been a different kind of year for the Tribe. The home opening series against Seattle was canceled because of a ridiculous snowstorm that hovered over Cleveland for a week. The next series against the Angels would mark the return of American League baseball to Milwaukee as the three games had to be played there. The team didn’t play a home game in Jacobs Field for over two weeks, yet in those beginning weeks, something special was brewing. The Indians knew if they could survive the ridiculous month that they could fight through anything. Well, April turned and the Indians found themselves atop the AL Central.

The weird turns only continued as the calendar moved to May and June. Jeremy Sowers and Cliff Lee, two supposed cornerstones of a solid staff, couldn’t get outs. Sowers compiled a 1-6 record with an ERA above 7.00 and earned a demotion to AAA. Lee was even worse in June: a 0-4 record with an ERA above 10.5. How many teams would demote a pitcher who had won 15 games in his last three seasons? It seems ludicrous, but the move had to be made. Besides the pitching woes, the Indians offense began to stagnate. After a hot April, DH Travis Hafner went cold and his bat stayed that way until the middle of September. Can’t-miss prospect Andy Marte missed the ball quite a bit at the plate and earned himself a trip to AAA. Yet, through all of the struggles before the All-Star break, the team remained within striking distance.

After the All-Star break, everything was supposed to turn the corner. Instead, it got much worse. The offense couldn’t hit. The pitching, except for Sabathia and Carmona, began to fade. The bullpen struggled to hold games. The Yankees and Red Sox came into Cleveland and just pounded the Tribe while winning six of seven games. The fans grumbled about manager Eric Wedge’s moves, GM Mark Shapiro’s lack of trades and a general malaise throughout the team. Then, C.C. Sabathia says, “We are going to win the division. Guaranteed.” WHAT?!? was the collective reaction throughout Northeast Ohio. Yet the big man saw something and would be proven right in six weeks.

We have already documented the great role of the youngsters in an amazing stretch run, but a core group of players has also delivered this year. While Peralta, Sizemore and Hafner have compiled mediocre numbers, catcher Victor Martinez has provided a consistent bat that mixes power and timely hitting. At the back end of the bullpen, the three-headed monster of Perez, Rafael Betancourt and Joe Borowski have shut down games. Perez and Betancourt -- or the Raffys -- both have sub-2.00 ERAs, while Borowski leads the AL with 45 saves (and a 5+ ERA, but let’s not discuss that). Lastly, Sabathia.

Carston Charles, or C.C., the supposed leader of the staff and team, had to deliver this year. He trimmed his weight in the offseason, quit golf to avoid injury and entered camp with an attitude that losing was not acceptable. The numbers will tell the rest of the story for the most likely winner of this year’s AL Cy Young Award:
  • 241 innings pitched: leads the AL
  • 19 wins: 2nd in the AL (would be 21 or 22 if the team scored ANY runs in August)
  • 5.65 : 1 K to BB ratio: the best in the majors among starters
  • 209 Ks: 5th in AL
  • 3.21 ERA: 5th in AL
This mixture of contributions from expected sources and unlikely minor leaguers is the blueprint for any small-market team. The world (and ESPN) may focus solely on the big-market boys like the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs as the playoffs come to the fore, but the best record in baseball belongs to the AL Central Champion (96-66, tied with Boston). Their combination of timely hitting, a deep starting rotation with two aces and a reliable bullpen make the Tribe a lethal team come October.

KENNY LOFTON
On the field, the impact of Lofton can be classified as a moderate success. He certainly is no longer an everyday player (especially in the field), but his abilities at the plate make him extremely important for the team come October. The Lofton deal is significant because it represents the savvy of GM Mark Shapiro. He was able to land Lofton for a minor-league catcher in an organization that is already crowded with catchers (see: Martinez, Victor and Shoppach, Kelly). Shapiro would not give up the world for Dotel or Gagne; and as the baseball world has seen, that proved to be a very wise move. Lofton will be an important presence in October, and it’s comforting for Indians fans to know that we did not mortgage the future for him to return to Cleveland.

COMPARED TO THE 90s
The great Indians teams will always be compared to the mid-90s Indians, but it is highly doubtful that any future Indians team will invigorate a city as much as those teams did. The 90s Indians had a perfect storm of ingredients in their favor: a new stadium, a talent-laden team full of home-grown products, a city without football for three years. With little sporting alternative, the city of Cleveland rallied around those 90s teams and sold out a Major League record 455 consecutive games as a result. No Indians team will match that.

The 2007 team does not have the amazing stats of the mid-1990s teams, but the team appears to be much better suited for the short series of October. With a 1-2 combo in Sabathia and Carmona, the 2007 Tribe has a pitching combo that far surpasses the old days of Charlie Nagy, Orel Hershesier, Dennis Martinez and Jaret Wright. The 2007 offense, while extremely talented, does not have Hall of Fame talent from top to bottom like in the mid-90s. Let’s take a look at the common names in the lineup: Lofton, Vizquel, Baerga, Belle, Murray, Thome, Ramirez, Alomar Jr. These men all dominated their positions in baseball for a few years, and more than a few are Hall of Fame worthy. Yet, they went ring-less in Indians uniforms. The 2007 team may lack those names, but the strength at the top of the starting rotation makes them a more formidable October foe.

Indians fan: Tell me about it. I just that name and I shudder.
Chief Wahoo: Jose Mesa.
Fan (shivering): Ooooooh.... do it again.

Wahoo: Mesa.

Fan: Ooooooooh.

Wahoo: Mesa. Mesa. Mesa.

Fan: Oooooh... it tingles me!
If the Indians are going to lose in the playoffs, the most likely reason for their downfall will be Joe Borowski. He may lead the American League with 45 saves, but his eight blown saves (and numerous other close calls) cause way too much drama at the end of ball games. His inability to lock down two saves in Seattle during the last week of the season cost the Indians home-field advantage AND the all-important choice of the long or short ALDS series. Indians fans all recall being three outs away from the title in 1997 only to see Joe Table (aka, Jose Mesa) blow that save in Florida. Ten years later, there is a great fear of that happening again.

ALDS PREVIEW
The Yankees swept the Indians 6-0 in the season series, but they did not face C.C. Sabathia during the season. They will certainly face the big lefty in Game 1 and possibly again in Game 4 or 5. The starting pitching advantage certainly goes to the Indians with Sabathia and Carmona, but the Yankees lineup has been firing on all cylinders over the last two months. The X-Factor will be A-Rod. His October struggles are well documented, and if those continue, the Indians will have a great advantage. It is a very even matchup, and the winner is well prepared to represent the AL in the World Series. These are the two hottest teams in the American League playing in the first round, and it will certainly be interesting. The series will most likely go to five games, and once it goes five, who knows what will happen? If I had to pick now, I’d go with the Indians because of the superb depth in their pitching staff (or maybe because I’m a homer who desperately wants his team to beat the Yankees).

-- Jeff Dees, Sept. 30, 2007
Chicago

Phillies win NL East, so Cubs must win World Series (it's gonna happen)

Well, the Royals' season is over, and it ended in a loss. We'll come back with the proper season-ending words in due time, but as there are plenty of teams still playing, we're now going to shift gears. This blog will trundle on through October, one of the greatest months in sports.


Chris Trotman/Getty; Kathy Willens/AP

"Pride goeth before the fall." --Ron Darling (or Keith Hernandez?), Sports New York (SNY), Sunday
"We've got so much talent, I think sometimes we get bored." --Carlos Delgado, WFAN, Sept. 21

"Says the bitch who was on a slump and got his hand broken." --Kirby-Star, IGN message board

The MFY made a charge at the Red Sox, but it turns out the collapse we should have been watching came from the other league.

Is it better to have loved and lost (Mets) or never loved at all (Royals)? I'm not sure. But do consider the following and decide whether you could handle this happening to your favorite team:
  • The Mets became first team in Major League history to blow seven-game lead with only 17 to play.
  • The Mets' chances of making the postseason as of Sept. 12 was 99.8 percent. They had a 500-to-1 shot against of not making the playoffs.
  • According to the link in the above-bullet point, this was the second worst collapse in baseball history. Whenever those two words are used together -- baseball history -- I think we all make an implicit mental note that baseball history spans two World Wars and 18 presidents, which means there's at least more than an outside chance that we may have just witnessed something we will never, ever again see.

I have Mets-rooting friends, and I'm afraid to talk to them right now. What does one say? Do you say you know how they feel? Because, really, since this is unprecedented, we have no idea how they feel. Trying to comfort a Mets fan would almost make me feel guilty -- yes, my team lost 93 games, but at least they didn't make you feel like you just got gutted with a serrated kitchen knife.

Darling/Hernandez, SNY, bottom of 9th: "I'll tell ya, if they don't rally, this is a moment when you sit in front of your locker and the whole season passes in front of you , and it's almost -- I don't want to equate it to death -- but it just goes by so quickly and you remember all those little moments, things that might have been."

Hernandez/Darling: "Well, this is an experience I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy."


Tom Mihalek/AP

"We're the team to beat." --Jimmy Rollins, Feb. 20

"I got here earlier than the players. Couldn't sleep last night." --Chris Wheeler, Phillies color commentator who accompanies the great Harry Kalas, Sunday

For the record, I haven't heard a regular season crowd as loud as the one at Citizens Bank Park in the 9th inning, right after the scoreboard revealed the Mets had lost. There was a momentary pause to the frenzy before they turned it on again just before a two-strike pitch to the first batter. I feared the volume of the noise after the final strikeout would blow out my computer's speakers.

I think Gene Mauch can sleep easier from now on.

And in case you were wondering how Shea fans reacted after the Mets' final out: they booed. Loudly.

One more thing, in case you don't think baseball is karmic: the Phillies franchise lost their 10,000th game this season.

This leads to only one possible conclusion: the Cubs will win the World Series. I would bet my house on it, if I had a house.

POSTCRIPT: With Coldplay playing in the background, either Ron Darling or Keith Hernandez of SNY said, "There is too much focus today in this game, I think, on statistics, and you know what, the game's gotta be won on the field. There's a human element in basbell. Just like in war, you can have all your high-tech strategic bombings, but guess what? What wins the wars is the grunts in the trenches."

I think that's about as wrong an interpretation of statistics and as egregious a war metaphor as you'll encounter anywhere.
POSTSCRIPT 2: I can't leave without mentioning my favorite team of September, the Rockies. I'll let Derek Jacques of Baseball Prospectus take it away:
Two weeks ago, over at Sports Illustrated’s web site, I noted the Colorado Rockies' 2.1% chances at making the postseason, per the Playoff Odds Report, and I wrote:

In the NL West, the Rockies’ surge into contention was a little like a meteor shower– no sooner do you notice it’s happening than it’s over.

A strange thing happened almost immediately after those words went out to my editor. Colorado won, and won, and kept on winning...